Russia Won't Forsake Assad — And We Shouldn't Be Surprised

Western analysts spent years projecting their own exit ramps onto Moscow's Syria policy — assuming, repeatedly, that the cost of backing Assad would eventually outweigh the benefits. This essay argues the opposite: that Russia's behaviour in Syria is entirely consistent with how it has historically treated clients it has bled for.

Read through that lens, the Russian commitment is not a puzzle to be solved by Western diplomacy; it is the predictable output of a doctrine that values demonstrated loyalty to allies as a strategic asset in its own right.